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How we calculate depeg risk scores for each token For a quick reference of weights and tier thresholds, see โ€œScoring Methodology: Depeg Monitor - All Signals & Scores.โ€

Risk Tiers

Each token receives a score from 0-100 based on weighted risk signals. The score maps to a tier:
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Feature Weights

The final score is a weighted sum of normalized risk signals (each 0-1). Weights sum to 90%, leaving room for future features.
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Velocity & Momentum Scoring

Beyond the base score, we track how quickly risk is changing. Rapidly rising scores get boosted for earlier warnings.
๐Ÿ“ˆ VelocityRate of score change (points/tick). Positive = worsening risk.
๐Ÿš€ AccelerationChange in velocity. Helps detect rapidly accelerating depegs.
โšก Momentum BoostUp to +15 points added when velocity exceeds threshold.

Token Type Adjustments

Different token types have different expected behaviors. The model adjusts for this:
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Example Calculation

Token: USDC on Ethereum Price: $0.985 Peg: $1.00 Deviation: 1.5%
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Hysteresis & State Machine

To prevent alert fatigue, tier transitions require sustained conditions:
  • Upgrade to Critical: 1 tick above threshold
  • Upgrade to Warning: 2 consecutive ticks above threshold
  • Upgrade to Watch: 2 consecutive ticks above threshold
  • Downgrade to OK: 2 consecutive ticks below clear threshold