supply_velocity | 17% | Recent mint pressure — minted_24h as a % of total_supply. A sudden supply surge is the leading pre-depeg signal: issuers mint aggressively to meet redemptions, or attackers exploit uncapped minters. | ≥10% of supply minted in 24h → 1.0 |
liquidity_erosion | 12% | % drop in liquidity vs the 7-day average. Pool depth quietly shrinks before a depeg as LPs detect risk and exit early. A 50%+ drop in depth signals impending slippage collapse. | ≥50% liquidity drop → 1.0 |
pool_balance_drift | 11% | DEX pool imbalance — how far the stablecoin’s share has drifted from 50%. A balanced Curve/Uniswap pool sits at ~50%. Heavy one-sided selling pushes the ratio toward 80–90% before price breaks. | 100% or 0% pool share → 1.0 |
price_confidence | 10% | Inverted price source confidence (DeFiLlama). Low confidence = fewer reliable price sources feeding the market. Single-source pricing is a fragility indicator. | low → 0.7 · fallback → 0.9 · single_source → 0.4 |
cross_source_divergence | 10% | Spread across multiple price data sources. Divergence above 5% means market participants are seeing different prices — a precursor to arbitrage breakdown. | >10% spread → 1.0 (5%→0, 10%→1.0) |
whale_concentration | 7% | Top-10 holder % of total supply. Concentrated holders can trigger a bank-run cascade — when whales exit, redemption pressure overwhelms liquidity and price breaks. | <20% = 0.0 · 50% = 0.5 · ≥80% = 1.0 |
blacklist_activity | 8% | Freeze/blacklist events on this token contract in the last 7 days. Issuers typically freeze large addresses during active investigations or after detecting suspicious behaviour — a leading compliance signal. | 5+ events in 7d → 1.0 (1 event → 0.3) |
mint_burn_flow | 8% | Bank-run gauge from the supply flows tracker (±100). Negative = unusual redemption pressure. When burning significantly outpaces minting, the market is voting to exit. | -100 (max burn pressure) → 1.0 (≥0 = 0.0) |
mint_role_centralization | 8% | Single EOA holding MINTER_ROLE — the structural vulnerability exploited in the USR March 2026 incident (~$80M minted from ~$200K collateral by one compromised key). An uncapped single-key minter is a systemic risk regardless of current price. | critical (single EOA) → 1.0 · warning (2 minters) → 0.5 |
tvl_supply_divergence | 5% | On-chain supply materially exceeds DeFiLlama per-chain circulating supply. Tokens created on-chain but not reflected in circulating data = potential unbacked minting or bridge mint accounting error. | ≥20% on-chain excess → 1.0 |
yield_anomaly | 4% | APY spike above the 30-day rolling average. A sudden APY jump (issuers boost yield to retain depositors during stress) is a counter-intuitive but historically reliable pre-depeg signal. | 3x baseline APY → 1.0 |
