A framework based on probability of loss
Our framework centers on probability of loss: the likelihood that a user’s exposure to an asset or structure results in financial loss. Loss can arise through several paths, including a failure to redeem, a loss of backing, a smart contract exploit, insufficient liquidity, or a failure in a critical dependency. The relevant paths depend on what is being assessed. We evaluate the conditions that make these outcomes more or less likely, the protections available, and the connections between sources of risk. A rating summarizes this assessment into a comparable view of risk. It should not be interpreted as a precise percentage probability unless explicitly stated.Our rating methodology based on probability of loss is separate from our risk scores for wallets, transactions, smart contracts, and other onchain asset types.
On-chain and off-chain assessment
On-chain risk is assessed in real time, using observable blockchain activity and conditions. This includes the behavior of smart contracts, transactions, liquidity, asset concentrations, and dependencies. Off-chain risk is assessed as close to real time as available information allows. This includes issuer disclosures, reserve reporting, legal arrangements, governance, and operational controls. Update frequency depends on when sources publish information and when that information can be verified. These perspectives are evaluated together. Strong off-chain backing can coexist with on-chain vulnerabilities, while sound technical infrastructure can still depend on weak financial or operational arrangements.From risk factors to ratings
Our methodology organizes evidence into three levels:- Risk types: Broad dimensions of risk relevant to the asset or structure.
- Risk categories: Specific areas of assessment within each risk type.
- Risk factors: Individual conditions or indicators used to evaluate each category.
