> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.webacy.com/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.
# Peg Canary Score (PCS)
> Peg Canary Score (PCS) is a forward-looking stablecoin stress indicator that surfaces pre-depeg conditions 6–48 hours before price breaks.
Peg Canary Score is a **forward-looking stress indicator**, not a depeg confirmation. The live risk score detects an *active* depeg; Peg Canary Score catches the structural and market conditions that typically *precede* one — often 6–48h before price breaks.
# Peg Canary System vs the Live Risk Score
| **Dimension** | **Live Risk Score** | **PCS Score** |
| :-------------------- | :------------------------------------------------- | :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| **What it detects** | Active depeg — price is already moving | Pre-depeg stress — conditions building before price breaks |
| **Update frequency** | Every 5 minutes | Daily (or on-demand) |
| **Primary inputs** | Price, slippage, persistence, oracle, supply spike | Supply flows, pool balance, liquidity erosion, whale concentration, blacklist events, yield anomaly |
| **Lead time** | Confirms an event in progress | Warns 6–48h before price breaks in historical incidents |
| **When to act on it** | Exit / reduce NOW | Review position, increase monitoring, prepare contingencies |
| **Score range** | 0–100 (higher = active risk) | 0–100 (higher = pre-stress) |
| **Tier labels** | ok / watch / warning / critical | CALM / WATCH / ALERT / DANGER |
# Threat Bands
# The 11 Pre-Depeg Signals
Each signal is normalized to 0–1 before weighting. Missing signals are skipped and all remaining weights are renormalized to sum to 1.0, so data gaps never inflate the score.
| **Signal** | **Weight** | **What It Measures** | **Max Threshold** |
| :------------------------- | :--------- | :------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | :------------------------------------------------------ |
| `supply_velocity` | **17%** | Recent mint pressure — minted\_24h as a % of total\_supply. A sudden supply surge is the leading pre-depeg signal: issuers mint aggressively to meet redemptions, or attackers exploit uncapped minters. | ≥10% of supply minted in 24h → 1.0 |
| `liquidity_erosion` | **12%** | % drop in liquidity vs the 7-day average. Pool depth quietly shrinks before a depeg as LPs detect risk and exit early. A 50%+ drop in depth signals impending slippage collapse. | ≥50% liquidity drop → 1.0 |
| `pool_balance_drift` | **11%** | DEX pool imbalance — how far the stablecoin's share has drifted from 50%. A balanced Curve/Uniswap pool sits at \~50%. Heavy one-sided selling pushes the ratio toward 80–90% before price breaks. | 100% or 0% pool share → 1.0 |
| `price_confidence` | **10%** | Inverted price source confidence. Low confidence = fewer reliable price sources feeding the market. Single-source pricing is a fragility indicator. | low → 0.7 · fallback → 0.9 · single\_source → 0.4 |
| `cross_source_divergence` | **10%** | Spread across multiple price data sources. Divergence above 5% means market participants are seeing different prices — a precursor to arbitrage breakdown. | >10% spread → 1.0 (5%→0, 10%→1.0) |
| `whale_concentration` | **7%** | Top-10 holder % of total supply. Concentrated holders can trigger a bank-run cascade — when whales exit, redemption pressure overwhelms liquidity and price breaks. | \<20% = 0.0 · 50% = 0.5 · ≥80% = 1.0 |
| `blacklist_activity` | **8%** | Freeze/blacklist events on this token contract in the last 7 days. Issuers typically freeze large addresses during active investigations or after detecting suspicious behaviour — a leading compliance signal. | 5+ events in 7d → 1.0 (1 event → 0.3) |
| `mint_burn_flow` | **8%** | Bank-run gauge from the supply flows tracker (±100). Negative = unusual redemption pressure. When burning significantly outpaces minting, the market is voting to exit. | -100 (max burn pressure) → 1.0 (≥0 = 0.0) |
| `mint_role_centralization` | **8%** | Single EOA holding MINTER\_ROLE — the structural vulnerability exploited in the USR March 2026 incident (\~\$80M minted from \~\$200K collateral by one compromised key). An uncapped single-key minter is a systemic risk regardless of current price. | critical (single EOA) → 1.0 · warning (2 minters) → 0.5 |
| `tvl_supply_divergence` | **5%** | On-chain supply materially exceeds reference per-chain circulating supply. Tokens created on-chain but not reflected in circulating data = potential unbacked minting or bridge mint accounting error. | ≥20% on-chain excess → 1.0 |
| `yield_anomaly` | **4%** | APY spike above the 30-day rolling average. A sudden APY jump (issuers boost yield to retain depositors during stress) is a counter-intuitive but historically reliable pre-depeg signal. | 3x baseline APY → 1.0 |
# Case Study: USR March 2026
The `mint_role_centralization` signal was added directly in response to the [Resolv incident](https://www.webacy.com/blog/usr-depeg-why-structural-health-is-the-mandatory-standard-for-institutional-defi). An attacker who gained access to the single EOA holding MINTER\_ROLE minted \~\$80M USR from \~\$200K of collateral in one transaction — the off-chain service was the only constraint, and there was no on-chain cap. PCS would have flagged this vault with a **DANGER** pre-stress score based on the `mint_role_centralization` signal alone, before any price impact.
This is also why the Risk Rating structural risk component includes a **mint\_cap\_status** adjustment: an uncapped minter adds +10 pts to structural risk regardless of current PCS readings.